What was he thinking?
By Mark Barr, Editor, Pennsylvania Poker Room
We have all muttered that question as we walk away from the poker table dejected after watching our flopped set beat by the 4 outer on the river. “How can he make that call gut shot? What was he thinking?” This month's digest is all about thinking and it applies to all forms of poker.
“What was he thinking?” is a very important question to ask ourselves. The problem is that we ask it at the wrong time. We always ask after an opponent's horrible play catches incredible luck and sends us home. Instead, we should ask ourselves that question about each person at the table as soon as play begins. Poker players think at different levels. A winning poker player is a player that identifies the thinking level of his opponents and adjusts his game accordingly. The weakest of players think at Level 1. They look at their cards and play the hand according to the strength of the hand they hold. Nothing else matters to them except the strength of their hand. We'll call these players L1. At Level 2 thinking, the player plays according to his own hand strength plus he considers what his opponent may be holding. He will use bet size and up cards to try and put his opponent on a range of hands. We'll call this player L2. As a player spends more and more hours at the poker table, they begin to develop level 3 thinking. At this level, they are fairly good at putting their opponent on a hand, now they are also thinking what hand their opponent thinks they have. These players we will call L3. The last level we will discuss is that of the L4 player. This is the player that says, “I know he knows that I know what he thinks I am holding”. Here's an example of L1 through L4 play.
Level 1 Thinking and Play
You find yourself heads up in a hand against a player that raised preflop. Flop comes 8s, 9c, Qh and you hold 10c and Jc. You flopped a straight and your opponent bets pot size and you smooth call. Turn is 4d and he bets little more than the pot and you smooth call again. The river is a harmless 2d and he bets again and you reraise all in. He insta-calls your all in and is in total shock when you show your straight. He turns over his Ah Qd and makes a comment about how bad his luck is. His play was a perfect example of L1 thinking. He raised preflop with his Ah Qd and played it all the way down after flopping TPTK (top pair - top kicker). He never considered your hand or even why you went all in. All he thought was “I have TPTK and it is a winner”. These L1 players are the easiest players to identify; they frequently make this type of play.
Level 2 Thinking and Play
Let's use the hand above for an example of L2 play. This time your opponent checks the turn because of your smooth call on the flop. You check the turn hoping to trap him on the river. The river comes off, and your opponent bets a little less than the pot followed by your reraise 3x his bet. This time, he folds his A ? Q ? realizing that you have his TPTK beat. In this hand, your call on the flop made the bettor think about what you could have. He bets on the river because he does have a good hand, but he is prepared to fold should you come over top.
Level 3 Thinking and Play
Again, let's use the same hand as it just played out in the L2 example. The only difference this time is that you only min-raise him on the river because you know he has most likely come to the conclusion that you are probably holding the straight. This time the player calls your small raise because the pot odds are correct to make the call. You were thinking at L3. You figured that he knew he was probably beat, so all you could do was give him great pot odds to make the call and he did.
Level 4 Thinking and Play
Let's take this same hand one step up. Again, the hand plays out exactly as it did above with one exception. The opponent folds to your min-raise on the river. Why does he fold? He folds because he realizes that you know he has put you on the straight and a min-raise is all he would possibly call. His fold shows that not only is he thinking at L4, but he is also a much disciplined player. You best be on your best game when mixing it up with him.
Just to throw a twist in this hand, suppose you push all in with your river raise. Why would you do this? Because you realize he is playing at L4 and your over bet may tell him that you didn't have 10 J, but instead you had another straight draw or flush draw that missed and you want to push him out of the hand. If that works and he calls, you just made a brilliant Level 5 play…OR…he was just at Level 1 and you could have had an all in called at the flop.
Now that we have seen the different levels of thinking in action next we need to adjust our game to our opponent's level. At first, you may think that Level 4 thinking should beat level 2 thinking every time. I assure you, it doesn't work that way. If you fail to identify the level of thought of your opponents, they will eventually hand you a bad beat. The player that holds a pocket pair to your flopped top two pair can be very dangerous if luck decides to smile on him. You can bet any amount you want, and they are calling. And the next thing you know, the board four flushes on the river and their 99 turns into a flush that crushes you. You walk away muttering, “What the %$#* was he thinking?” Guess what….he wasn't thinking! How could this result have been different? Let's say this player has failed to fold any decent holding like top pair or mid pair with top regardless of what cards are on the board or how opponents are betting. If you witness this, you should identify this player as L1. Knowing he is an L1 player, you can slow down your betting to make sure those runner runner scare cards don't come and then get your chips in the pot on the end. He will call your bet, he's been doing it all day.
The point to remember here is that you can make plays based on your Level 4 thinking all day, but if your opponent only thinks at Level 2, he will not respond the way you expect. “Getting inside your opponents head” is a term we all have heard. But to actually do that you must do two things. Yes, you look at the hand from his point of view, but you must also be using his level of thinking when viewing a hand from his perspective.
Making Moves
Making a play or a move during a hand that you opponent doesn't understand rarely turns out the way you hoped it would, For example; you have a monster hand after the flop and think you can stack your opponent by the end of the hand. You check the flop and he bets and you call. The turn comes and it is not a scare card and now you know you hold the nuts and he holds a good hand but is drawing dead. You think to your self that if you value bet here he will see it as just that and fold, but he will call a huge bet or even all in thinking that it is an over-bet designed to chase him out of the hand and he will call. So you push all in and he thinks for a few seconds and folds. Why didn't this work? Your well thought out play failed to gain anymore chips. The problem here was that you failed to realize that the entire time he has been at your table, not one time did he fold any decent hand to a min-bet or raise nor have you seen him make a value bet. You gave him credit for understanding value betting, when in fact he doesn't.
When going to battle it is always useful to know what weapons your opponent holds. In poker, different players have different weapons and the best players have most or all of the weapons. Does a player understand playing from position? Do they adjust their playing style based on stack sizes around the table? Are they tight? Are they aggressive? Are they loose? Are they passive? These are all weapons, tactics and styles that your opponents may use at the table. Knowing at what level they think and how they use their weapons gives you a big advantage when getting into a hand with them. This brings to mind two quotes from my favorite movie The Godfather. Vito Corleone to Santino, “Never let anyone outside of the family know what you're thinking” and Michael Corleone “Keep your friends close and your enemies closer”. Both Dons are saying the same thing. Vito knows that if your enemy knows what you are thinking, he gains an advantage and Michaels is saying that to get an advantage, keep close to your enemy, study him and learn his ways.
Be proactive. Ask yourself “What is he thinking?” while you're in the game instead of asking “What the %$#* was he thinking?” as you make your exit from the poker room.